Weekly analyze January 28, 2019

Wallet and price analyze shows same as last week, slightly less SLTs in the large wallets and the price drifting down also dragging down the 30-day trend line another -0,002 to -$0,024/day.

We are all waiting for the first STO but what is the chance of a “buy the rumor, sell the news” event?

I would say it’s quite high, allot of expectations were built up in November and December and many new holders came in. I see a chance of few new SLT holders stepping in for the STO, Smartlands might already have set up the underwriters SLT accounts and the retail investors already have their holdings.  If there is a lack of immediate increase in price there is a risk of drop in price in disappointment.  

But I think the STO will create a buzz in the crypto and investment world and this will attract new SLT holders, first the traders and later the HODLers. So, it might be a question of time frames, even if the price drops initially it’s overall very positive with the STO.

Last, some words about why I’m doing this.

By detail studying SLT, I hope to find a way to value crypto tokens and understand the price movements. I think there is a chance crypto will play a role as an investment in the near future (within 5 years?) and somewhere there is a new Microsoft starting up right now. By increasing my knowledge, I will have a better chance to find them when looking around at other projects. 

And of course, I like the Smartlands project and I think they will succeed.

Total new assets holders per week

Large wallet analyzes

Index calculated as weekly wallet change quantity divided over unchanged quantity, e.g. this week change (New 20.000 + Buy more 69.913 + Sold parts 18.747+ sold all 74.121) divided by Unchanged 6.144.236 = 2,74%.

Top 10 wallets & key individual wallet changes

• No movements in the top 10 this week, first top ranked wallet with movement on rank 24, adding 7,6k ending up with 20k
• The 20k SLT movements continues, this week a 40k was sold out but two wallets added 20k.
• Largest seller (beside the -40k above) was the sell out from rank 57 & 58, -11k in both ending up with 0.
• Largest buy was 20,2k, adding to the one-week old wallet containing 4k.

Changes in large wallets from December 10 to January 28

Price and volume analyze

Upper and lower bounders calculated as 95% probability to be within this range, based on the standard deviation for the period. Current standard deviation 0,34 (last week 0,32). Actual trend indicates that price is dropping $0,024 per day.

Graph below shows the 30 day trend value since September, trend above 0 indicates higher trend, below decreasing price trend.

SLT velocity  calculated as Weekly trading volume/average weekly SLT price (to express the trading volume in SLTs) * 52 (to annualize the volume) divided by Total SLT and Non HODL quantity.

Data sources:

StellarExpert

CoinMarketCap

Smartlands

SLT valuation formula, part 1 of many

Tuesday there was a Coindesk newsletter sent out touching upon valuation of cryptos including three links to Medium posts on the topic:

• MV = PQ
• NVT (Network Value to Transactions) analysis = Network value/Daily transaction volume
• Metcalf’s Law with variations. Robert Metcalfe, the inventor of Ethernet, proposed a formula in the 1980s, Metcalf’s law = the value of a telecommunications network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system (n²)

They have at least four things in common:

• They use the limited data available: price, transaction volume, number of coins, number of users, price and quantity for service offered
• Using basic math trying to set a value: functions, moving averages, correlations and overlays
• All saying we are in early phases to define methods for crypto valuations
• Long texts and to some extent hard to follow

I found the MV=PQ thinking most interesting where the author, Chris Burniske, includes the HODL impact on the price. He also writes MV=PQ is not a formula for predicting price, so he never gets to what I’m looking for, a formula with facts and estimates to end up with a fair current price and future value.

Below a first attempt, not complete or correct, to create a formula based on Chris thinking.

We all “know” the price must be connected to the number of coins in circulation – fewer coins available and an increasing demand must give a higher price. 

The MV=PQ is defined as:

• M = size of the asset base (or in other words Market cap)
• V = velocity of the asset (transaction volume divided by the number of coins)
• P = price of the digital resource being provisioned, in Smartlands case the 2% investment fee and 2% holding requirements, total 4% of the ABT value
• Q = quantity of the digital resource being provisioned, in Smartlands case the total value of the ABTs outstanding

So, we have the right side of the formula, well, we have the P but can make guesses about the Q. 

The velocity V we could get through transaction volume (in SLT) over 7,1 million.

Or even better with the “non HODL” quantity, about 0,6 million with using the large wallets (>3.000 SLT) as proxy for HODL.

But … calculating M (market cap) with “fixed” PQ and dived it with V we get a smaller M if the velocity V goes up … I want a formula that gives a higher M with higher V …

Maybe I can “change” the formula to M=P*Q*V*x where x is some kind of fixed factor to get to reasonable numbers? (I might today have invented the crypto Pi! 😊 😊😊)

The table below show some cases. The x is calculated backwards to get to current market cap (Q=1 in Current not get 0).

I like the two parts of the formula P*Q and V on the non HODL quantity, factors I’m sure impact the price but it’s the multiplication of them that bothers me, it makes no logical sense. 

A good start but needs much more thoughts and analyzes. Let’s see going forward. 

I will add Velocity to the weekly analyze, calculated as Weekly trading volume/average weekly SLT price (to express the trading volume in SLTs) * 52 (to annualize the volume) divided by Non HODL quantity.

The velocity is very high, last week’s trading volume have been over $6 million according to CoinMarketCap and that equals to 2 million SLT’s. And we know that it’s max 600k SLT in the “non HODL” wallets (most like much less) so the robots on Exrates are running hot.

Weekly analyze January 21, 2019

The crypto winter have a firm grip on BTC and most crypto prices are drifting lower, including SLT.  I have small positions in 5 other coins and looking at the trend for them they all look like they will be 0 in a few months’ time even if the projects show progress. Looking at the BTC price I can sometime wonder if there will be a turnaround, maybe the no-coiners are right. It’s a déjà vu feeling from the drops in 2014, 2015 & 2016 … 

But when looking at the SLT large wallet activity I get some hope, there were again several of the large wallets moving, slightly lower on total but one new wallet with 24k and one where 20k been moved in and out a couple of times for the last weeks. Preparations for the first STO? Let’s hope for some good news coming weeks attracting new inflows to the SLT.

Total new assets holders per week

Large wallet analyzes

Index calculated as weekly wallet change quantity divided over unchanged quantity, e.g. this week change (New 63.848 + Buy more 29.611 + Sold parts 61.750 + sold all 44.988) divided by Unchanged 5.452.885 = 3,07%.

Top 10 wallets & key individual wallet changes

• First from top ranked wallet with movement was in rank 4, sold 5K ending up with 434k and first movement in this wallet since I started to watch in detail (2018-12-03). Same movement for rank 5.
• Largest seller was the 9 ranked wallet, -35k ending up with 110k and also the first movement since my analyze started.
• Largest buy was 28k in a new wallet followed by a 20k in a wallet that was 0 five weeks ago, then +20k, all sold two weeks ago and now back to 20k.

 

Changes in large wallets from December 10 to January 21

Price and volume analyze

The trend is calculated with linear regression. Upper and lower bounders calculated as 95% probability for the price to be within this range, based on the standard deviation for the period. Current standard deviation 0,32. Actual one month trend indicates that price is dropping $0,02 per day.

Data sources:

StellarExpert

CoinMarketCap

Link to Smartlands

Weekly analyze January 14, 2019

A little bit more activity among the wallets with >3.000 SLT this week ending up with 6k less in this bucket. The total number of SLT in these large wallets haven’t changed much from the 6,5 million since I started to look at the numbers but a little bit more movements among them then I thought, more than half of the wallets have made changes over the last month.

I’m impressed of the progress the Smartlands team have done since the ICO, it’s complicated stuff in a ground-breaking area involving many topics. I also like their way of communicating, a steady frequent flow of information about progress without any fuzz. Not sharing their time and activity plans is a little bit frustrating as a SLT holder but I fully understand why they are doing it, there are 8.000 assets holders with already high expectations looking at every word they write and say.

My guess for Smartlands team 2019 activities and priority is:

1. First ABTs (4?) launched as a proof of concept of: 1. technical platform for KYC, STO and trading, 2. legal framework, 3. financial set up to get rid of crypto price volatility risk during STO, 4. co-operation with borrowers and major lenders
2. Step one in a marketing plan, not full speed but enough to get attention from new major lenders/ABT underwriters
3. Develop the process to evaluate and choose new projects (there are many shady people out there who would like to borrow money)
4. List the SLT on some major exchanges, to create liquidity and increase the daily trading volume. This is important for all participants; lenders, borrowers, HODLers, traders and Smartlands
5. Develop the STO process to be able to frequent launch new ABTs. Here I really would like to know the plan, one a week or one a month will make big difference
6. Last, when above are in place and working – the big marketing activity  

For me last year was preparation, 2019 will be “Smartlands platform launch” and 2020 onwards we will see the true value of the SLT.

Total new assets holders per week

Large wallet analyzes

Index calculated as weekly wallet change quantity divided over unchanged quantity, e.g. this week change (New 19.000+Buy more 38.1922 + Sold parts 21.943 + sold all 41.666) divided by Unchanged 6.138.544 = 1,85%.

Top 10 wallets & key individual wallet changes

• No change in the top 10
• First from top ranked wallet with movement was in rank 20, sold 3,5K ending up with 60k
• Largest seller was 20k ending up with 0
• Largest buy was 20k ending up with 40k, also the first from top ranked adding new SLTs

Changes in large wallets from December 10 to January 14

Price and volume analyze

Data sources:

• StellarExpert
• CoinMarketCap

Link to Smartlands