SLT analyze July 24, 2019

It’s been a very interesting 9 months detail studding Smartlands, but I decided when doing previous update to sell my SLT (and my other tokens). SLT was a good investment for me but somehow a disappointment after the price drop over the last months.

What have I learned (allot!) and what are my conclusions?

• It’s early days, I think it will be several years before we see a broad-based adoption of crypto based services
• Same pattern for all 18 tokens I follow: Good/OK project deliveries, dropping token prices, very few new participants (wallets), crowed shout out for marketing and more exchange listings
• I’m back in the Bitcoin maximalist camp – I think most crypto based services will be paid in Bitcoin through some kind of blockchain interoperability protocol leading to the valuation of a token to be only the “utility value” (see previous thinking here). For SLT it’s the staking that can create a higher price but it will be tricky if only a few other holders see it as a store of value
• In the data I have collected I have found the change in number of wallets to be most useful. It’s been interesting to follow the large wallets, the numbers have been remarkable stable but beside that fact it’s been stable I have found no real use of the numbers (maybe that is good enough?)
• For Smartlands – have not changed my view from my writing here and here. The release of the new plan some weeks ago is a mix of good news and a question mark about if there ever been a “grand plan” or most actions are result of an agile adoption to new findings

This will be my last update, at least for a while. I wish both the SLT holders and the Smartlands team the best of luck and success!  

Total assets holders and new wallets

Large wallet analyzes

Index calculated as weekly wallet change quantity divided over unchanged quantity, e.g. this week change (New 56.754 + Buy more 51.358 + Sold parts 54.385 + Not in list 44.627) divided by Total 6.484.920 = 3,19%.

Top 10 wallets & key individual wallet changes since last update

• Among top 10, two wallets selling out 20k each
• Largest sell had rank 14 in May update, she sold out the 137k in the wallet. 7 more wallets sold >10k
• Largest buy is 30k in a new wallet. 8 more wallets added >10k

Changes in large wallets from December 10 to today

Price and volume analyze

CoinMarketCap have for some reason excluded the SDEX volumes, so no volume information.

Upper and lower bounders calculated as 95% probability to be within this range, based on the standard deviation for the period. 

Graph below shows the 30-day trend value for last 6 months, trend above 0 indicates higher trend, below decreasing price trend.

Index below contains 18 tokens equal weighted, starting date December 15, BitCoin low after 2017 peak.

Data sources:

StellarExpert 

Stellarport 

CoinMarketCap 

Link to Smartlands 

Weekly analyze May 27, 2019

I wrote some months ago about the risks I saw in Smartlands (here) and I would say they to some extent are playing out. Quotes from original text and some comments:

• “Most start-ups run into same finding; the initial time plan and budget was too optimistic. How patient are our unknown owners and how much funds are they willing to risk?” My impression was the first STO should be early Q1 so a little bit late but not a major issue. I’m still more concerned about the lack of information about who owns Smartlands Ltd and their ability to fund the company for the next 1-2 years
• “All SLT holders might not have same information. Large SLT holders related to the Smartlands team, institutional lenders/borrowers might get more information then retail investors.” So far, no signs of large selling’s or buying among the top holders
• “Slow adoption rate for ABT in the investment world. For Smartlands to grow rapidly, the ABT needs to attract the middleclass savers and institutional money”. Would say this is in play and a major issue. I was sure they had an underwriter for the first STO who would take what was not crowdfunded but don’t look like that
• “Smartlands is targeting high yield investments.” I was surprised on the yield on this first STO, how come the borrower could not find funding to a lower interest rate?
• “I see two short term risks, first the crypto bear market pushing down the overall crypto interest and the second risk in “buy the rumor, sell the news”-event”. Well, the bear market seem to be over but tokens and especially not SLT are not going anywhere, what need to happen for the SLT to take off?

I’m happy to see the marketing team joining and the listing of the SLT on more major exchanges, looks like my guess on 2019 plan plays out. Let’s hope they succeed in bring in

• more STO participants
• more SLT holders
• a higher trading volume

For the large wallets (>3.000 SLT), nothing notable have happened during this last month.

Next update in a month unless I see something interesting.

Total assets holders and new wallets

Large wallet analyzes

Index calculated as weekly wallet change quantity divided over unchanged quantity, e.g. this week change (New 56.754 + Buy more 51.358 + Sold parts 54.385 + sold all 44.627) divided by Total 6.484.920 = 3,19%.

Top 10 wallets & key individual wallet changes since last update 

 

• Among top 10, rank 4 bought back most of what she sold in April, +19k in May and net -1,3k over the last two months.
• Largest sell had rank 20 in April update, she sold another 40k during May and have now only left 20k out of 145k when I started to track mid-December
• Largest buy is 35k in a wallet starting to buy end January and now have 79k

Changes in large wallets from December 10 to today

Price and volume analyze

Upper and lower bounders calculated as 95% probability to be within this range, based on the standard deviation for the period. 

Graph below shows the 30-day trend value for last 6 months, trend above 0 indicates higher trend, below decreasing price trend.

Index contains 19 tokens equal weighted, starting date December 15, BitCoin low after 2017 peak.

SLT velocity calculated as Weekly trading volume/average weekly SLT price (to express the trading volume in SLTs) * 52 (to annualize the volume) divided by Total SLT and Non HODL quantity.

Data sources:

StellarExpert 

Stellarport 

CoinMarketCap 

Smartlands.io

Weekly analyze April 28, 2019

No major changes in the SLT numbers. 

11 more wallets with >3k SLT during last month, that is encouraging but same total amount in the large wallets.  

I have added the index charts I wrote about last week last in this update.

To sum up the data and my thinking about SLT and the 18 tokens I follow:

• BTC is outperforming SLT and 15 of the other tokens
• SLT in bottom of the 18 tokens
• For SLT: very low growth in accounts, no change among the large wallets, very low trading volume (same for most of the other of the tokens as well)

Can it be that

• “new crypto money” basically all got to BTC?
• “existing token money” sell quick at sign of lost price momentum moving on to another token or BTC?
• longer term – there will only be store of value in a very limited number of tokens and all other token prices only contains the utility value ("buy only what I need for the service")?

I’m not planning to do any changes in my token portfolio – I will stay in “watch and analyze” mode for a while to see how this develops.

Next update in a month unless I see something interesting.

Total assets holders and new wallets

Large wallet analyzes

Index calculated as weekly wallet change quantity divided over unchanged quantity, e.g. this week change (New 3.935 + Buy more 11.798 + Sold parts 15.820 + sold all 9.993) divided by Total 6.202.402 = 0,64%.

Top 10 wallets & key individual wallet changes since last update

• Among top 10, rank 4 and 6 decreased their holdings with 10k each during last month.
• Largest sell had rank 29 in last update with 34k and have sold out 29k ending up with 5k
• Largest buy is a new wallet, buying 27k in the last two weeks

Changes in large wallets from December 10 to today

Price and volume analyze

Upper and lower bounders calculated as 95% probability to be within this range, based on the standard deviation for the period. 

Graph below shows the 30-day trend value for last 6 months, trend above 0 indicates higher trend, below decreasing price trend.

SLT velocity calculated as Weekly trading volume/average weekly SLT price (to express the trading volume in SLTs) * 52 (to annualize the volume) divided by Total SLT and Non HODL quantity.
 
Index below contains 18 tokens equal weighted, starting date December 15, BitCoin low after 2017 peak.

Data sources:

StellarExpert

Stellarport

CoinMarketCap

Smartlands