Weekly analyze March 24, 2019

More and better news then I had anticipated but the announcements did not have any real impact on the number of new SLT holders. Time for a marketing campaign? 

Some movements among the large wallets (>3.000 SLT), alomst a third of them made transactions and among them, one new wallet ending the week with 23k.

Total assets holders and new wallets

Large wallet analyzes

Index calculated as weekly wallet change quantity divided over unchanged quantity, e.g. this week change (New 51.763 + Buy more 25.695 + Sold parts 40.154 + sold all 46.703) divided by Unchanged 6.009.520 = 2,53%.

Top 10 wallets & key individual wallet changes

No activity among top 10 wallets.
 

First transaction from top was rank 20 with a sell of 2k ending up with 60k. First buy from top was rank 24 adding 4k ending up with 52k. 

Largest 

• decrease was 10k in a wallet ending up with 8k
• increase was 25k in a new wallet followed by 15k ending up with 23k

 

Changes in large wallets from December 10 to today

Price and volume analyze

Upper and lower bounders calculated as 95% probability to be within this range, based on the standard deviation for the period. 

Graph below shows the 30-day trend value for last 6 months, trend above 0 indicates higher trend, below decreasing price trend.

SLT velocity calculated as Weekly trading volume/average weekly SLT price (to express the trading volume in SLTs) * 52 (to annualize the volume) divided by Total SLT and Non HODL quantity.

Data sources:

StellarExpert 

Stellarport 

CoinMarketCap
Smartlands

Weekly analyze March 17, 2019

Not much to report from the large wallets (>3.000 SLT), same kind of patterns as we have seen before and the number of wallets and holding at same level as last time I posted.

Interesting week in front of us, will we see increased numbers of new wallets, more SLT holders and a tick up in volume?

SLT holders and new wallets

Large wallet analyzes

Index calculated as weekly wallet change quantity divided over unchanged quantity, e.g. this week change (New 25.808 + Buy more 10.916 + Sold parts 13.180 + sold all 30.955) divided by Unchanged 6.071.350 = 1,24%.

Top 10 wallets & key individual wallet changes

There has been one change in a top 10 wallets since last, rank 5 sold out 13k ending up with 157k.

The largest decrease have been -30k on rank 18 ending up with 80k.

A wallet that was on the large wallet list beginning of January came back again, this time from 0 to 38k in one week, the largest increase.

Beside above, some movements between wallets (+10.455 in one, -10.455 in another one) but otherwise nothing that catch my attention. 

Changes in large wallets from December 10 to today

Price and volume analyze

Bounders calculated as 95% probability to be within this range, based on the standard deviation for the period. 

Graph below shows the 30-day trend value for last 6 months, trend above 0 indicates higher trend, below decreasing price trend.

SLT velocity calculated as Weekly trading volume/average weekly SLT price (to express the trading volume in SLTs) * 52 (to annualize the volume) divided by Total SLT and Non HODL quantity.

Data sources:

StellarExpert 

Stellarport 

CoinMarketCap 

Smartlands 

SLT valuation formula, part 4 of 4

Thought I had a good understanding of tokens and Smartlands when I started this three months ago, but I have learned allot during this time. The main points I have learned:

• There is no good way (yet) to create measurements that gives an indication of short- and long-term value of a token
• Right now, I feel comfortable about the two-fold evaluation method of “utility value” and “trust in project”. I will use this approach on some other project to learn more and develop my thinking
• I have developed a different view of the Smartlands project

Smartlands and SLT is a long, long way apart from Satoshi’s vision on a crypto currency: trustless, transparent, decentralized and immutable among some of BitCoins characteristics.

Smartlands is more like a private fin-tec startup utilizing a token platform. Clever, but maybe not what I’m looking for to my token portfolio. As an SLT holder I have put all my trust in a low-transparent and centralized company without any possibility to impact (unless Smartlands want me to) to develop a brilliant idea. 

This doesn’t mean it cannot be a successful “investment” for me but the possible outcomes short- and long term are hidden in the shadows where I only see the areas Smartlands lighten up. In other words – my perception of the risk in SLT have increased.

Unless Smartlands changes approach and declare they want to become a trustless, transparent, decentralized and immutable open source project I see a very low probability of SLT to become a store of value in the future. The SLT price might still increas if they succeed in increasing ABT volumes over a long time so the “utility value” and obliged HODLers becomes the single driver for the price.

I think we have a good short-term ride in front of us! If the Smartlands related risks are handled well SLT will attract allot of new owners. As I said in last post, so far all good and I have no reason to believe this will change, they have the best of intent and incentives in succeeding in the way of operating they have chosen. 

I will continue to update the wallet analyze but on a less frequent bases, right now not allot is happening and the data do not change significantly. 

Last – the SLT holders are a great crowed!

Thank you for all help and positive feedback! And good luck, I think we all have opened the box to a once in a life time opportunity investing in BitCoin and tokens.

Weekly analyze February 25, 2019

Another stable week in the large wallets and as we all know price up 4% (it’s strange, 4% weekly gain feels low …). The trading volume is very low, about 72k SLT (1% of all SLTs) was traded.

I have made two updates to the “SLT valuation formula, part 3” post:

• regarding service fees: Smartlands have only released the investor part of the fee structure. 
• under risks: All SLT holders might not have same project information. Large SLT holders related to the Smartlands team, institutional lenders/borrowers might get more information then retail investors

Total assets holders and new wallets

Large wallet analyzes

Index calculated as weekly wallet change quantity divided over unchanged quantity, e.g. this week change (New 14.989 + Buy more 14.803 + Sold parts 6.582 + sold all 16.704) divided by Unchanged 6.155.073 = 0,81%.

Top 10 wallets & key individual wallet changes

No movements in the top 10 this week, first top ranked wallet with movement on rank 20 (25), adding 49 SLT ending up with 63.245.

What I assume to be a shuffle between two wallets happened this week as well, 10,5k moved between two wallets, one ending up on 0 and the receiver doubled the number of SLTs. This was the largest movement among the larege wallets.

Changes in large wallets from December 10 to today

Price and volume analyze

Upper and lower bounders calculated as 95% probability for price to be within this range, based on the standard deviation for the period. 

Graph below shows the 30-day trend value for last 6 months, trend above 0 indicates higher trend, below decreasing price trend.

SLT velocity calculated as Weekly trading volume/average weekly SLT price (to express the trading volume in SLTs) * 52 (to annualize the volume) divided by Total SLT and Non HODL quantity.

Data sources:

StellarExpert 

Stellarport 

CoinMarketCap 

Link to Smartlands