Weekly analyze April 28, 2019

No major changes in the SLT numbers. 

11 more wallets with >3k SLT during last month, that is encouraging but same total amount in the large wallets.  

I have added the index charts I wrote about last week last in this update.

To sum up the data and my thinking about SLT and the 18 tokens I follow:

• BTC is outperforming SLT and 15 of the other tokens
• SLT in bottom of the 18 tokens
• For SLT: very low growth in accounts, no change among the large wallets, very low trading volume (same for most of the other of the tokens as well)

Can it be that

• “new crypto money” basically all got to BTC?
• “existing token money” sell quick at sign of lost price momentum moving on to another token or BTC?
• longer term – there will only be store of value in a very limited number of tokens and all other token prices only contains the utility value ("buy only what I need for the service")?

I’m not planning to do any changes in my token portfolio – I will stay in “watch and analyze” mode for a while to see how this develops.

Next update in a month unless I see something interesting.

Total assets holders and new wallets

Large wallet analyzes

Index calculated as weekly wallet change quantity divided over unchanged quantity, e.g. this week change (New 3.935 + Buy more 11.798 + Sold parts 15.820 + sold all 9.993) divided by Total 6.202.402 = 0,64%.

Top 10 wallets & key individual wallet changes since last update

• Among top 10, rank 4 and 6 decreased their holdings with 10k each during last month.
• Largest sell had rank 29 in last update with 34k and have sold out 29k ending up with 5k
• Largest buy is a new wallet, buying 27k in the last two weeks

Changes in large wallets from December 10 to today

Price and volume analyze

Upper and lower bounders calculated as 95% probability to be within this range, based on the standard deviation for the period. 

Graph below shows the 30-day trend value for last 6 months, trend above 0 indicates higher trend, below decreasing price trend.

SLT velocity calculated as Weekly trading volume/average weekly SLT price (to express the trading volume in SLTs) * 52 (to annualize the volume) divided by Total SLT and Non HODL quantity.
 
Index below contains 18 tokens equal weighted, starting date December 15, BitCoin low after 2017 peak.

Data sources:

StellarExpert

Stellarport

CoinMarketCap

Smartlands 

SLT valuation formula, follow up

My more in-depth crypto token learning phase started about the same time as Bitcoin had it lows in mid-December. At that time, I followed 5 projects where of SLT was the only one that had gained in price, both from ICO and when I purchased and that was one of the reasons I choose to start to detail study SLT.

Crunching the SLT data and my thinking around valuation (here and here) have taken me several steps forward in the token world. Right now, I am following 18 projects with about the same level of details as I show here for SLT and have a reasonable understanding of project purpose, project set up and level of decentralization, token holding structure, price movements etc. 

So, what have I learned so far?

1. We are in a very early phase. The average number of new holders in the 18 projects are 40 per week over the last 3 months
2. I have created an equal weighted price index for the 18 tokens with starting date December 15, the lowest closing day for BTC since December 2017 peak. The index follows BTC and the range of the token’s price development is from -25% to +118% where BTC is up 65% (graphs below)
3. All tokens (in my perception) shows a “buy the rumors, sell the news” price pattern
4. Telegram is a good “sentiment” indicator. Allot of activity is most likely correlated to price increases and when prices start to drift lower the content goes from “when moon” to “why no marketing”
5. Many projects have important milestones this quarter
6. It’s very easy for me to get excited in a project, there are so many bright and interesting development going on
7. All projects are different in many perspectives: technical, organization, marketing, funding etc.

As all of us, I’m looking for the best return on my investments, but I also like to understand and control my risk. As I have written before I’m a buy and hold guy, ”forever” is a good holding period for me 😊 so the store of value part is important for me.

One way to reduce the risk is to diversify the token portfolio and set up some criteria’s when to buy and sell. The diversification also improves the chances to find the next Microsoft or open source project setting up a new standard used by everyone in the future. I have not yet formalized my criteria’s but I’m thinking about some kind of portfolio model where I go from a broad portfolio (25 tokens?) to a more focused one over time. I have also experienced that’s it difficult for me to get out of a project, I’m hoping next milestone in the project will change the trend to the point I’m down -90% and only pennies left from investment.

I’m even more bullish on BTC and tokens then three months ago but right now it looks to me it’s the same total amount of money moving around between the different tokens. So I find no rush to buy tokens right now with my BTC but I’m ready and the tools needed to monitor are in place.

My view on SLT and Smartlands have not changed; good idea and progress but higher risk then the other projects since we have no clue about Smartlands Ltd, who are the owners and their ability to finance Smartlands for the next 1-5 years.

For the large wallets - a small uptick in number of wallets (encouraging), some selling in top 10 (why?) but on an overall picture very stable, I will do a full update next week.